Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a5f5bb246e89d2d4b2ddae8861fe0b45846b3cbb4d3915d78fbb84ce51d7559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 73c | 449.46$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…33d0backed Yes | 27c | 399.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 27c | 218.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 209.2$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 178.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 80c | 155$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…9702backed Yes | 12c | 153.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 26c | 151.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 144.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 27c | 135.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 15c | 134.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 131.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 25c | 123.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 17c | 119.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 117.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 109.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 97.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 81.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 79.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 20c | 74.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed No | 74c | 72.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 18c | 71.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 20c | 71.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 76c | 70.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 32c | 68.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 67.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 23c | 66.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 57.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 57.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 52.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed No | 79c | 51.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 25c | 49.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…999cbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 60c | 39.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 35.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 75c | 30.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ed…3242backed No | 73c | 27.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 25.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 67c | 23.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 68c | 21.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 76c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…cdabbacked No | 80c | 18.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…e651backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.