Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x426446b5ef0f81c73fbcedf3e93e1ce9996a60a2ad1630f9a2b466077732e483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 981.62$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 423.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 28c | 242.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 199.83$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.67 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 198.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 182.48$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 175.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 18c | 155.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.28 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 143.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 71c | 140.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 140.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 39c | 135$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 123.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 123.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 18c | 112.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 101.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 88.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 21c | 85.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 81.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 81.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…3480backed Yes | 18c | 79.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +192.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 67c | 74.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 73.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 23c | 69.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 66.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 61.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…4002backed No | 76c | 57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 36c | 55.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 20c | 54.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d3…93d8backed Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 69c | 50.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…4f96backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1e…9d49backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 24c | 49.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 47.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…0702backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 78c | 46.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…86babacked No | 76c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 41.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 61c | 39.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 52c | 38.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 38c | 37.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 51c | 35.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…3cedbacked No | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 55c | 32.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 63c | 30.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…1d3dbacked No | 77c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 79c | 28.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 64c | 28.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf3…f2fcbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…0348backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 19.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 61c | 19.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 59c | 17.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 74c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed Yes | 75c | 15.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.