Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a68eebe3ba35e939f79ed5d4cea15226f76a85a2117657f9ee8b7b869d7b7b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 434.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 377$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.14 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 317.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 267.64$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 7c | 253.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 244$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 37c | 235.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 6c | 199.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 193.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 175$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 41c | 131.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 118.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 17c | 115$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8282backed Yes | 21c | 111.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 107.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 63c | 100.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 98.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 45c | 92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6991…6ad6backed No | 76c | 91.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 91.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 19c | 88.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 52c | 77.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 21c | 76.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 74c | 70.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 15c | 70.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 46c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 80c | 58.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 18c | 55.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 54.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 62c | 53.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 24c | 47.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 41c | 47.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 46.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 35c | 43.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 80c | 37.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 31.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 30.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 28.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 70c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 27.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 54c | 26.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 25.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f60…4cacbacked No | 49c | 24.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 47c | 22.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 74c | 20.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 77c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 67c | 17.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 15.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.