Serie A · resolved market
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-01-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a753b2b9d6bfdcc20cde265c7881339ce33cbc8bf1931d984a11e41ab1a37de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,260$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 5c | 3,865$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.97 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,819$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.33 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…de83backed Yes | 8c | 2,546$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 8c | 2,346$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.68 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 7c | 2,230$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Yes | 8c | 2,159$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 8c | 2,098$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.82 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 7c | 2,094$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.55 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb28d…83e4backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 1,990$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 9c | 1,642$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.76 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,415$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.21 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 8c | 1,263$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…4691backed Yes | 8c | 1,245$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 8c | 1,130$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 9c | 1,087$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 900.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…d333backed Yes | 5c | 708.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 8c | 651$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 9c | 611.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 8c | 599.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 260 | 46.9%122 W · 138 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Yes | 8c | 500.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…dd18backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 8c | 493.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…8777backed Yes | 7c | 478.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 6c | 420.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177c…bcd1backed Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…966cbacked Yes | 5c | 353.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 5c | 344.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…0615backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…9fdabacked Yes | 7c | 286$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…7553backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 6c | 262.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 129 | 29.5%38 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 8c | 249.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…493dbacked Yes | 6c | 246.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a3…257abacked Yes | 5c | 245.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 8c | 241.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Yes | 8c | 234.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…e1f5backed Yes | 7c | 229.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7003…684bbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes | 7c | 215.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 202$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…6696backed Yes | 9c | 173.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 167.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 162.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd642…c499backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f23abacked Yes | 7c | 146.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed Yes | 8c | 131.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-01-14?this page
- Will SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.