Champions League · resolved market
Will Fenerbahçe win on 2025-08-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a7dbe73b70e1b9e5d70d832805ebf2f9037c84eec13cddafd7ce4033979d265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 19c | 12,162$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.85 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 18c | 5,579$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…2cd5backed Yes | 18c | 5,476$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 18c | 4,125$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.44 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…4237backed Yes | 17c | 2,682$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…85f5backed Yes | 19c | 2,631$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 18c | 1,894$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.9 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,051$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes | 19c | 947.37$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9d…4744backed Yes | 19c | 526.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Yes | 17c | 411.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18fb…2bc5backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…2dbcbacked Yes | 19c | 270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Yes | 13c | 222.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa675…d926backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 198.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f79…1db4backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Yes | 17c | 179.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 19c | 158.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e17…2b55backed Yes | 21c | 152.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 17c | 144$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Yes | 19c | 136.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 113 | 35.4%40 W · 73 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2979…59e5backed Yes | 19c | 126.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 17c | 117.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…3577backed Yes | 17c | 112.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…ab1fbacked Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…0b8fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 21c | 95.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…b47dbacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fenerbahçe win on 2025-08-27?this page
- Will Benfica vs. Fenerbahçe end in a draw?No won
- Will Benfica win on 2025-08-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.