MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a87c019081fe6b90359d6bfe08957526ceb6cc8518c8fc71e3bc9baff3cdc20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Kansas City Royals | 68c | 21,924$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,924.46 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 14,917$4,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,698 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 4,779$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.44 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 1,458$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 572.81$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.83 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 496.42$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 399$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 115.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 111$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 62.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 36.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 28.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Kansas City Royals | 74c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.