MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbe144199504e5c2ff8d04964edc7211c6266114248d17b0c1c55133370fb9c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 40c | 23,546$9,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,514.74 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 16,130$9,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,534.16 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 52c | 10,000$5,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,180.52 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 9,959$5,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,948.93 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 60c | 4,000$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 3,928$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.66 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 61c | 2,500$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 740.12$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.21 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 60c | 701.63$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.38 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 31c | 538.02$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.82 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 60c | 420$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 41c | 236$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 44c | 233.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 41c | 194.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 40c | 184.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 33c | 158.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 12c | 148.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 60c | 129$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 112$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 63c | 111.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 59c | 100.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 34c | 59.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 58c | 32.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 61c | 29.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…91ccbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.