MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4c29cd36062ae7b49328f3de3e6e64c619618c4e9a998373f718f2cc09bc460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 3,192$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 2,417$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 27c | 1,933$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 1,624$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.55 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 421$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 231.49$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 216$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Kansas City Royals | 27c | 144.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kansas City Royals | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 50.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 45.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 42.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Kansas City Royals | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Kansas City Royals | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 23.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.