MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d5d4faa2969011cb31fc7a6b6ae1383c69f973abbd95b84cab67b55d6e0aae4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 48c | 47,611$22,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,853.34 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 52c | 27,904$14,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,393.82 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 52c | 21,501$11,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,320.32 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 49c | 20,510$10,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,050.13 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 12,708$6,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,215.83 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 6,718$3,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 5,100$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.31 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 1,300$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.9 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 54c | 928.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.33 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b94…b660backed Under | 58c | 506.38$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.08 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 49c | 376.26$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.96 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 53c | 342.63$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.04 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 52c | 273.13$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 42c | 213.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 18c | 191.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 166.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 48c | 160$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 50c | 153.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Under | 52c | 107.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 49c | 97.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 95.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 93.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 50c | 77.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 58.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 56.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Under | 52c | 53.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 46.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…06b3backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under | 51c | 39.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 51c | 35.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 66c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Under | 53c | 30.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…4a57backed Over | 51c | 20.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 51c | 20.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.