MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a91c953f4fc991f42784dffb9cf32ffe553f0ca43ba11083a73fe4b4853c7e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof New York Mets, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets | 63c | 5,002$3,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,151.04 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 4,450$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 3,208$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked New York Mets | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 60c | 1,208$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked New York Mets | 68c | 1,037$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.94 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 840$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.7 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 396.31$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets | 63c | 350.21$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.3 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 36c | 286.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.09 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 285.91$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed New York Mets | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Braves | 76c | 233.18$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 144.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed New York Mets | 22c | 137.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 134.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Atlanta Braves | 33c | 132$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 121.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked New York Mets | 64c | 103.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed New York Mets | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Mets | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Mets | 39c | 81.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 77.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…f5d4backed New York Mets | 68c | 76.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked New York Mets | 68c | 72.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 35c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 54.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 51.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed New York Mets | 66c | 45.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 44.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…5ff8backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 44.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 43.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed New York Mets | 68c | 36.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…f7e6backed New York Mets | 68c | 36.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 28.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked New York Mets | 64c | 24.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked New York Mets | 64c | 24.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed New York Mets | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 18.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked New York Mets | 68c | 16.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.