MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x437e7bee19122a14d37b3539cdfcb2ea8b87e664fa3313ec5ef55511b38a6c85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 6,346$4,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 67c | 5,750$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 23c | 2,791$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 32c | 2,148$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.36 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 79c | 373$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.67 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 303.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Over | 68c | 248.88$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Over | 58c | 210.34$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 56c | 209.8$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 44c | 193.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 24c | 168.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 147.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 52c | 137.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 35c | 134.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 41c | 124.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 42c | 123.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 58c | 112$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 23c | 91.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 39c | 74.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 53c | 65.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 53c | 63.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Over | 71c | 46.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 94 | 73.4%69 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 42.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 79c | 41.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 71c | 41.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 54c | 34.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 57c | 34.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed Over | 55c | 25.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed Over | 56c | 25.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…5ff8backed Over | 56c | 25.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Over | 56c | 24.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 79c | 20.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 73c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…839bbacked Under | 79c | 14.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.