Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b0d28c624b20ae2d865c3ede1a8531f9dd6d70546dfd6579f8289a3be0f1abb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 22c | 706.43$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.11 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 58c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 70c | 198.08$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 194.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…fb20backed No | 77c | 163.84$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 158$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.49 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 40c | 147.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 138.45$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 119.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 38c | 117.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 26c | 116.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 108.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 102.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 60c | 101.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed Yes | 26c | 97.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 41c | 82.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 82.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 39c | 77.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 74c | 75.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 72c | 75.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 23c | 74.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 74.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 26c | 67.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 25c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 61c | 64.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 77c | 51.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 21c | 51.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 48.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 47.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 46.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 22c | 46.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 44.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 28c | 36.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 42c | 34.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ed…3242backed No | 75c | 26.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 26.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 74c | 25.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 40c | 25.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 44c | 23.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 23.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 68c | 22.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 61c | 20.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 74c | 19.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 78c | 19.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 70c | 18.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 61c | 17.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 78c | 17.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.