Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1960136e2a03832bead1555a6072a9e2df029ae9932d93f0dec644788e9e187c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 59c | 408.17$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.04 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 353.11$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 26c | 275.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.73 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 249.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked Yes | 48c | 212$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 53c | 190.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 41c | 175$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 157.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 153.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked No | 22c | 150$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 58c | 141$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 52c | 134.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 123.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 117.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 40c | 112.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 44c | 109.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 47c | 105.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 44c | 98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 41c | 96.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 47c | 84.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 76c | 82.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 19c | 73.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 62c | 67.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 60c | 66.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 53c | 65.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 49c | 65.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 47c | 64.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…a597backed Yes | 68c | 64.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 64.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 45c | 64.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 59c | 63.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 62.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 56c | 62.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 71c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 40c | 59.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 44c | 54.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3884…4a9cbacked Yes | 58c | 54.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 55c | 52.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 52c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 47c | 51.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 76c | 51.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 51c | 50.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 58c | 49.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 49.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 47c | 49.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…5bc2backed No | 48c | 48.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 29c | 48.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 52c | 47.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 25c | 47.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 45c | 43.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 64c | 41.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 41.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 49c | 40.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 44c | 39.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 65c | 38.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed Yes | 55c | 36.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…3835backed Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 45c | 33.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 50c | 33.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 45c | 32.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 58c | 31.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 34c | 29.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 52c | 29.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 29.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 36c | 29.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…fc4cbacked No | 44c | 28.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 46c | 25.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 41c | 24.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…f80ebacked Yes | 46c | 24.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 57c | 24.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…0be8backed Yes | 48c | 23.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked Yes | 53c | 23.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…63ffbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 18.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 56c | 17.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.