Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b23502531a42b20f5449b04c285626b157c77bc6d9d7ff8ab19dfe794cb10b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 42c | 780.41$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.22 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 320.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.53 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 78c | 290.61$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 31c | 212.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 193.89$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.57 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 26c | 192.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 39c | 174.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 22c | 153.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 135.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 132.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 131.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 122.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 122.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 26c | 114.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 100.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 87.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 80.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 70.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 68c | 56.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 56.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 25c | 55.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 54.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 52.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 21c | 52.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 37c | 45.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 27c | 44.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 74c | 34.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 31c | 32.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 32.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 73c | 26.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 26.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 49c | 25.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 71c | 20.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…dbe4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 17.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 76c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.