Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ab64686d3eeb3601ee1497974555f8a0474f4adbd62b58036945953e348632f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 512.29$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 42c | 466.01$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.02 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 53c | 237.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 48c | 222.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.43 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 210.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 33c | 198$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 47c | 184.21$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 177.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 175.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 147.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 61c | 146.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 49c | 139$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 38c | 128.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 14c | 116.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 112.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 62c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 64c | 101.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 48c | 94.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 90.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 89.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 32c | 81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 42c | 66.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 66.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 65.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 61.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 31c | 57.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 40c | 53.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 50c | 53.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 33c | 52.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 51c | 47.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 54c | 46.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 67c | 44.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 44c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked No | 33c | 38.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 67c | 35.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 34.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 39c | 30.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 53c | 30.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 68c | 29.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 48c | 23.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 52c | 23.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 19.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 70c | 15.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.