MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b2946f6683571f00864b3c3656bbd4bf46be1a8138f750be08c00a7ff1ce909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 19c | 2,063$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 796.18$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.64 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 516$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 470.09$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.03 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 434.86$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.01 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 237.92$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 235.25$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 128.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 106.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 102.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 98.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed San Diego Padres | 18c | 95.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 90.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 87.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 87.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked San Diego Padres | 17c | 74.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed San Diego Padres | 21c | 66.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked San Diego Padres | 21c | 66.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 65.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Toronto Blue Jays | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 60.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 56.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed San Diego Padres | 22c | 55.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 50.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 30.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…2d27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 28.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 24.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 22.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.