MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36b254bdc724fce69f40daf01e9f26098dcb5a0896151c0c52563dc84ba10f73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28e8…6080backed San Diego Padres | 5c | 14,168$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.37 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 12,000$7,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,439.95 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 9,272$3,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,338.02 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 8,304$3,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,142.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 6,500$4,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 1,760$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.32 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 1,052$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.72 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6131…b44fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 746.43$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 663$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 552.83$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.96 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 315.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 312.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 302.1$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 300.93$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 269.24$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.95 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 238$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 234.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…4261backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 203.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 140.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 126$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 126$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…0dbbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 104.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…6963backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 103.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 87.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 85.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 75.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 15c | 74.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 56.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 24.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 18.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…e9b8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 18.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.