Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b2c31c07d5ae60cf9f27af27c68ab63a6b30e5b7617b9b9aeaf64fc2e0f7e0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24e4…1c9dbacked Yes | 39c | 2,404$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…5f01backed No | 61c | 1,208$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ca…18a0backed No | 61c | 1,196$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 2c | 1,101$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 2c | 856.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 60c | 398.73$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.94 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 376.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 60c | 350$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.69 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 325.9$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.32 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 268.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.89 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 253.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…c210backed Yes | 48c | 244.17$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 210.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 13c | 210.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 45c | 168.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 10c | 161.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 62c | 140.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 119$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 17c | 117.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 44c | 112.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 62c | 103.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 79c | 103.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 67c | 100.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 35c | 91.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 82.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 66c | 69.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 58c | 67.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…a27ebacked Yes | 42c | 64.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 34c | 60.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 48c | 52.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 47.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…1432backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 33c | 39.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…c0bcbacked Yes | 31c | 35.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 37c | 31.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 55c | 30.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 80c | 30.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 71c | 28.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cf…5090backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 57c | 25.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 22.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 67c | 21.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 66c | 16.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 70c | 14.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.