Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x912eb7cef3357d3a256dc20801960f545dedf632e8ebd6c6923946ca487d1c9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 0c | 11,849$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…c095backed Yes | 3c | 1,074$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 39c | 258.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 30c | 245$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed No | 67c | 232.86$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 177.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 22c | 134.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 133.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 14c | 106.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 97.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 31c | 95.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 94.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 89.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 22c | 80.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 75c | 67.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 28c | 60.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 59.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 51c | 52.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 57c | 50.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…959ebacked Yes | 20c | 50.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 48c | 48.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 52c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…29a5backed Yes | 32c | 44.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 74c | 44.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 72c | 41.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 43c | 39.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 57c | 39.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 37.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 37.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 33.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…09a4backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 75c | 29.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52cf…5090backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 70c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 14.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.