MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b8d796cf9fda0aef757abc58661f4b1fdf5ce6828b404446bc3010481f8cdd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 20,000$11,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,800 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 17,974$7,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,908.73 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 3,642$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 2,957$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.22 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 1,303$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.86 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 1,282$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.24 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 1,000$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.04 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…438cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 778.65$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.58 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 667.05$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.88 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 640$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2155backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 532.14$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 518.96$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.42 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328b…566bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 467.86$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 288.79$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 192$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 168.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 86.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 75.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 23.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 22.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.