NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Spurs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bdfdc8ae03d6fc094f3e4c0b71e664eebe5ea5456447c179251e5c5ba9adf7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Spurs | 16c | 15,087$2,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,376.57 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Spurs | 0c | 12,250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Spurs | 5c | 8,806$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.43 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Spurs | 1c | 7,593$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Spurs | 16c | 3,759$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.85 | 377 | 34%128 W · 249 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Spurs | 15c | 2,836$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.76 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fec…62f0backed Spurs | 16c | 2,344$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8222…8b4ebacked Spurs | 18c | 2,230$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Spurs | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Spurs | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Spurs | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 296 | 43.2%128 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Spurs | 15c | 1,240$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 296 | 35.8%106 W · 190 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked Spurs | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 510 | 37.5%191 W · 319 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…4e9bbacked Spurs | 16c | 1,052$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Spurs | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…56a3backed Spurs | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 321 | 30.2%97 W · 224 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…51d3backed Spurs | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Spurs | 6c | 999.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Spurs | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…6307backed Spurs | 17c | 882.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…b24ebacked Spurs | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 29.8%48 W · 113 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…8c1abacked Spurs | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Spurs | 2c | 567.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 123 | 4.9%6 W · 117 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Spurs | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Spurs | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 398 | 43.5%173 W · 225 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Spurs | 15c | 404.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…f982backed Spurs | 16c | 382$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…8ce2backed Spurs | 7c | 342.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Spurs | 8c | 310.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d1…43a0backed Spurs | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Spurs | 8c | 273.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Spurs | 15c | 270$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854f…00a7backed Spurs | 5c | 267.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 472 | 29.4%139 W · 333 L | -33.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…72b6backed Spurs | 16c | 256.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Spurs | 15c | 254$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Spurs | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 370 | 11.4%42 W · 328 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5b…9b2fbacked Spurs | 17c | 173.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…5fbbbacked Spurs | 17c | 169.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…276fbacked Spurs | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Spurs | 17c | 141.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…5093backed Spurs | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 155 | 38.1%59 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Spurs | 16c | 119.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…9883backed Spurs | 17c | 117.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Spurs | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…7418backed Spurs | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c02…b4d4backed Spurs | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 336 | 39%131 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd025…1c54backed Spurs | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04aa…d2d2backed Spurs | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Spurs | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 855 | 42%359 W · 496 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…cb54backed Spurs | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x251c…c148backed Spurs | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Spurs | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Spurs | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07f…ad9dbacked Spurs | 17c | 60.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.