Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Athletic Bilbao beat Ludogorets?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c4f396128e4bde414eeac05118aa94467597cb2f2ee9a6d5c4ae45d9726ab03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 68c | 3,015$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.12 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Yes | 27c | 2,074$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 40c | 1,947$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.28 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed No | 42c | 984.43$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 60c | 878.97$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.59 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 47c | 739.41$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.41 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 42c | 658.06$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.55 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…b1debacked Yes | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf0…9363backed Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd937…d226backed No | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…21d5backed No | 44c | 499.98$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17de…8b83backed No | 43c | 499.93$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 42c | 435.41$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 43c | 405.88$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.53 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…5529backed Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3456…3f87backed Yes | 56c | 392.5$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 36c | 316.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 37c | 222$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…4d4ebacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked No | 43c | 199.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 57c | 199.53$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…2d9cbacked Yes | 56c | 198.87$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…1b45backed No | 44c | 198.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…3667backed Yes | 58c | 180.05$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +290.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…5f3ebacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8e…0a87backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7c…ea32backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 58c | 160.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…3312backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…e49cbacked Yes | 62c | 122.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 76c | 113.64$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes | 58c | 106.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…bef2backed Yes | 57c | 103.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…004dbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f54…68e6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd35…4effbacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 41c | 83.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…bd1ebacked Yes | 60c | 77.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 59c | 74.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…40b7backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…4c67backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…66a8backed Yes | 52c | 49.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed No | 44c | 43.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…1d13backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…6062backed Yes | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Yes | 58c | 28.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 37c | 28.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…6205backed Yes | 47c | 27.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…f39ebacked Yes | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…6987backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…74abbacked Yes | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…e800backed Yes | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b1…9eadbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…34bcbacked Yes | 56c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Athletic Bilbao beat Ludogorets?this page
- Will Ludogorets beat Athletic Bilbao?No won
- Will the match between Ludogorets and Athletic Bilbao end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.