NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c530aa2d4dd6d719d243eca6e6e0af5e79517ca0f1a3d56c105636d24bd3d1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hurricanesof Senators, Hurricanes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Senators | 29c | 486.79$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Hurricanes | 70c | 459.93$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.98 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…b277backed Hurricanes | 71c | 345.99$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…b11ebacked Senators | 30c | 319.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Hurricanes | 70c | 316.28$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Senators | 30c | 256.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Senators | 29c | 244.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Hurricanes | 70c | 206.22$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Hurricanes | 69c | 184.55$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…7142backed Hurricanes | 71c | 137.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…7166backed Senators | 30c | 133.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…078fbacked Hurricanes | 71c | 131.65$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hurricanes | 67c | 120.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Hurricanes | 70c | 111.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdee…e277backed Senators | 30c | 110.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Senators | 29c | 107.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…1f6dbacked Hurricanes | 71c | 96.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c4…2137backed Senators | 30c | 94.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Senators | 29c | 88.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Senators | 23c | 86.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…6c76backed Hurricanes | 71c | 83.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Hurricanes | 70c | 75.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Senators | 22c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Senators | 32c | 74.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…8853backed Senators | 30c | 71.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd9…4e25backed Hurricanes | 71c | 69.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795a…2befbacked Hurricanes | 71c | 68.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Senators | 29c | 66.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…617cbacked Hurricanes | 71c | 66.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ed…b199backed Senators | 30c | 65.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe014…c134backed Senators | 31c | 64.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Hurricanes | 70c | 61.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…e3fdbacked Hurricanes | 71c | 57.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…17d6backed Senators | 30c | 50.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Hurricanes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Senators | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Senators | 29c | 38.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed Senators | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Hurricanes | 79c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Hurricanes | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked Hurricanes | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Hurricanes vs. SenatorsHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.