NHL · resolved market
Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20429d731232d2c8da5e647452aa20085eb20ad3ddf4ffc0b2533c2285996b2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 26c | 2,216$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.25 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Under | 43c | 1,441$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 1,219$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.05 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 74c | 1,199$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 68c | 1,000$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 37c | 959.41$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.27 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 73c | 726.62$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.05 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 74c | 709.46$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Under | 26c | 576.36$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.16 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 66c | 541.12$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.71 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 74c | 527.81$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.58 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Under | 37c | 462.37$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 77c | 353.11$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.9 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 26c | 288.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.56 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 71c | 236.86$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.07 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 24c | 205.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 23c | 198.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.39 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 73c | 188.74$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.26 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 40c | 185.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.38 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 25c | 185.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 41c | 184.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Over | 56c | 105.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…9b4bbacked Under | 39c | 84.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 38c | 82.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 40c | 80.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Under | 46c | 75.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 58c | 75.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 39c | 74.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 41c | 72.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 79c | 71.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 20c | 65.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 53c | 60.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e4…68c7backed Over | 76c | 51.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 57c | 50.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 74c | 49.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 75c | 48.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Under | 62c | 47.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 48c | 46.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 26c | 45.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…c3b0backed Over | 53c | 45.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x307a…1aaabacked Over | 76c | 42.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4479…c84abacked Over | 76c | 41.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae21…f41bbacked Over | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…5a23backed Over | 75c | 39.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 62c | 35.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 79c | 34.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Over | 75c | 33.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 57c | 27.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…f903backed Over | 80c | 26.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfb…4d8dbacked Over | 80c | 25.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 61c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Over | 61c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc171…cb0bbacked Over | 76c | 19.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 76c | 14.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…e0ddbacked Over | 75c | 13.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 4.5this page
- Hurricanes vs. SenatorsHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Senators won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Hurricanes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.