Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c53a85551e6c75141f762e4ccdd8fb4bccca0230fb15f161d65929528582bf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 40c | 1,259$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 60c | 662.02$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.63 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 60c | 416$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 15c | 411.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f4…2a4abacked Over | 41c | 258.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 60c | 171.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 64c | 156.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 119.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 60c | 106.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 102$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 71c | 100.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 59c | 63.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…fa07backed Under | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 17c | 62.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…4d47backed Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 1.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)Racing Club de Lens won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.