Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29e853c1d3697b6793b569f7c1e75d5436a5ea770ebef6a8801b04a4cb4958da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 9c | 741.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 725.38$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.79 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 24c | 664.79$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 184.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 79c | 95.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 22c | 55.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 80c | 51.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 78c | 33.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 78c | 17.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698c…ddc8backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 1.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)Racing Club de Lens won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.