MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c5e3163a7b71a6b47d91851b9d49ced6dce096c502b348d98d343069b941056
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 1,993$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.87 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 1,748$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.66 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3f…6deebacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 1,509$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 1,415$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.76 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 1,024$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.92 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 846.76$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.59 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 598.21$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.98 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 440.11$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.68 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 428.63$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.32 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 390$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 135.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 119.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 97.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 96.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 89.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 78.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 67.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 66.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 35.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 28.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.