MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a48a6b74ea4bc5758978d2ed32262142226743d5ed7743e727667d910f23423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 2,613$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.69 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 2,329$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.25 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 57c | 1,364$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.52 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 44c | 1,301$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.44 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…121cbacked Over | 46c | 681.02$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 330.36$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 55c | 167.53$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 43c | 163$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 161.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 153.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…31e4backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 123.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 37c | 118.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 46c | 91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 35c | 91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 75.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 20c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 72.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 44c | 53.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb9…c8fabacked Over | 44c | 45.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 43c | 40.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 39.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 37.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…40b4backed Over | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 55c | 32.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 56c | 30.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…d533backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 70c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 55c | 19.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 78c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 67c | 16.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.