MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c67abe8aca5fd72970fe72c1b462a25df02f02a088b554428cdf696cc355a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Guardians, Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Blue Jays | 51c | 12,221$6,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,266.03 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jays | 32c | 7,281$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,337.21 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Guardians | 49c | 7,069$3,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,605.42 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Blue Jays | 50c | 7,063$3,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,531 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians | 60c | 6,499$3,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,611.2 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Guardians | 72c | 5,755$4,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.08 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Guardians | 63c | 4,508$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.22 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Guardians | 73c | 3,736$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.85 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…77f5backed Guardians | 52c | 3,410$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Guardians | 70c | 3,193$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.94 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Blue Jays | 51c | 2,392$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.05 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jays | 37c | 2,205$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Blue Jays | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Blue Jays | 51c | 1,165$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.16 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Blue Jays | 36c | 1,058$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Guardians | 49c | 1,010$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.92 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Guardians | 66c | 748.92$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.78 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Blue Jays | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blue Jays | 50c | 431.64$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.43 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Guardians | 49c | 394.15$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.87 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Guardians | 49c | 353.23$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.19 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…3b9ebacked Blue Jays | 36c | 329.43$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Blue Jays | 17c | 318.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…fd4abacked Blue Jays | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Guardians | 71c | 281.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 178 | 66.3%118 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Guardians | 53c | 267.92$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.92 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Guardians | 47c | 231$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.43 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Blue Jays | 48c | 216$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians | 51c | 196.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Guardians | 65c | 189.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Guardians | 51c | 183$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Guardians | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Guardians | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Blue Jays | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Blue Jays | 26c | 113.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Guardians | 47c | 108$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Guardians | 49c | 102.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Blue Jays | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Guardians | 49c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Blue Jays | 51c | 51.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Guardians | 63c | 50.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Blue Jays | 49c | 44.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Guardians | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Blue Jays | 51c | 34.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Guardians | 62c | 31.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Blue Jays | 41c | 30.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Blue Jays | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Blue Jays | 43c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Blue Jays | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Blue Jays | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.