MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ce3d9e40febcf84ba3da29d28d9c03e73c56a0f5c5b67c4ea34b880105477f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 47c | 50,099$23,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,546.46 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 53c | 25,000$13,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,750 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 14,877$7,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,054 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 48c | 9,975$4,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,788 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 6,796$3,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,781.21 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 5,659$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,672.64 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 43c | 3,287$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Under | 56c | 1,739$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.14 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 1,558$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 47c | 1,532$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.47 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 53c | 1,467$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.64 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…ffcabacked Over | 53c | 1,436$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.01 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 1,352$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 53c | 1,024$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 997$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 40c | 466.44$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.08 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 58c | 398.5$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.13 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2c…f9f2backed Over | 47c | 253.1$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 247$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.91 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 220$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…4807backed Over | 21c | 191.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 170.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 54c | 164.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 53c | 162$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 53c | 157.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 141.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 38c | 139.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 118$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 48c | 114.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 54c | 113.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 48c | 103$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…7ef8backed Over | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 52c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 52c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 49c | 67.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Under | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 27c | 40.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 38.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…f017backed Under | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 47c | 36.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Over | 58c | 27.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 53c | 27.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Under | 67c | 23.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 63c | 18.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…ffeebacked Under | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 15.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 16.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-8.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-9.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.