Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d07e16d4c89cfe1e9b6aed3d8808efa4bd8f0bf4eab43399a23c75c19d91b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 6,606$5,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 35c | 5,191$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 2,320$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 17c | 1,265$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.12 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 20c | 1,250$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 4c | 949$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Over | 19c | 788$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 9c | 706.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 28c | 647.45$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 20c | 647.05$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 17c | 497$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…10adbacked Over | 22c | 495.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…65bfbacked Under | 78c | 495.5$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 412.74$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Over | 17c | 379.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 17c | 351.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 17c | 351.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 17c | 351.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 17c | 343.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 17c | 343.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 17c | 343.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 17c | 338.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 17c | 281$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 18c | 183.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 71c | 167.13$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 12c | 141.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 17c | 139.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 35c | 56.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked Over | 29c | 41.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Under | 79c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 68c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 80c | 14.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.