Tennis · resolved market
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d087f0c4be17b65b5fab3648c884cda1fc551344d595f2adcef559e620bb54b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shintaro Mochizukiof Mackenzie McDonald, Shintaro Mochizuki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13b8…d1afbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mackenzie McDonald | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 72c | 2,046$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.85 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 70c | 1,752$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.61 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 73c | 1,184$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.12 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…a1a6backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 46c | 1,141$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.9 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Mackenzie McDonald | 11c | 884.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 40c | 749.2$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.62 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Mackenzie McDonald | 31c | 639.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.62 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 6c | 619.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 194 | 10.3%20 W · 174 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mackenzie McDonald | 5c | 594.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mackenzie McDonald | 43c | 500$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.68 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…5906backed Mackenzie McDonald | 6c | 332.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mackenzie McDonald | 10c | 293.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 76c | 280.47$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Mackenzie McDonald | 65c | 258$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.25 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 60c | 219$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Mackenzie McDonald | 32c | 215.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 283 | 48.1%136 W · 147 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 26c | 172.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Mackenzie McDonald | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 37c | 166.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 72c | 162.55$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Mackenzie McDonald | 63c | 156.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Mackenzie McDonald | 65c | 153.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 54c | 151$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 60c | 150$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 66c | 146.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Mackenzie McDonald | 62c | 145.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Mackenzie McDonald | 61c | 142.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 239 | 54.8%131 W · 108 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 63c | 139.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mackenzie McDonald | 24c | 127.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Mackenzie McDonald | 63c | 127$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…4b40backed Mackenzie McDonald | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 306 | 25.8%79 W · 227 L | -28.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 37c | 122$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 28c | 121.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…01fcbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 69c | 120.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 131 | 58%76 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Mackenzie McDonald | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Mackenzie McDonald | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Mackenzie McDonald | 61c | 114.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcd…232cbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 24c | 113.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 79c | 111$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 43c | 109.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Mackenzie McDonald | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Mackenzie McDonald | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mackenzie McDonald | 36c | 95.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 38c | 93.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 39c | 80.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 35c | 79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 39c | 76.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 60c | 73.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 48c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 71c | 56.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 226 | 67.7%153 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2750…3134backed Mackenzie McDonald | 62c | 45.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…41e1backed Mackenzie McDonald | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 371 | 58.8%218 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Mackenzie McDonald | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 80c | 39.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 44c | 38.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 71c | 37.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…67e6backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 372 | 55.6%207 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mackenzie McDonald | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7454…57f2backed Mackenzie McDonald | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Mackenzie McDonald | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Mackenzie McDonald | 55c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 55c | 24.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f29…5dfabacked Mackenzie McDonald | 62c | 23.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 120 | 67.5%81 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 77c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Mackenzie McDonald | 62c | 20.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Mackenzie McDonald | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.