Movies · resolved market
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d28c6038a63b398b87a17e4e8db1ecfa6c29782bf98ebddacd1e4bd419b7d3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d6…220cbacked No | 1c | 12,791$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed No | 3c | 8,000$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 6,754$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked No | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 12c | 425.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 60c | 386.84$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.33 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 74c | 283.46$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…9c48backed No | 19c | 256.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…44ecbacked No | 16c | 171$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 60c | 170.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…c3c5backed Yes | 60c | 167.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 14c | 160.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…c111backed No | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 97.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 11c | 95.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…1317backed Yes | 45c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 16c | 68.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 33c | 54.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed No | 26c | 52.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e68…2290backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?this page
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?No won
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?No won
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 27m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.