WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d41896c3e1fe81a5052a7fe9766c63c928d01fc7dd8e2322d173ba6aec4f6ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Lynxof Minnesota Lynx, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 42c | 1,105$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.16 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Minnesota Lynx | 58c | 1,060$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.03 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Lynx | 79c | 778.79$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.73 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed PortlandFire | 5c | 596.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 544.74$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked PortlandFire | 42c | 514.84$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.23 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 62c | 403.12$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Minnesota Lynx | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked PortlandFire | 5c | 329.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed PortlandFire | 42c | 272.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…599abacked Minnesota Lynx | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed Minnesota Lynx | 57c | 148.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Minnesota Lynx | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed PortlandFire | 42c | 91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed PortlandFire | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…3503backed PortlandFire | 43c | 40.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed PortlandFire | 47c | 38.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Minnesota Lynx | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8683…56c7backed Minnesota Lynx | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x123e…eed4backed Minnesota Lynx | 58c | 33.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Minnesota Lynx | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca7…e965backed Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)this page
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.