WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27b98106944af6f15e11e4b91fe5cc00798fc7e6618ac7f2f42f149d8abdd854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Lynxof PortlandFire, Minnesota Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ec6…d9edbacked PortlandFire | 2c | 30,800$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 93 | 18.3%17 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked PortlandFire | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked PortlandFire | 2c | 15,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed PortlandFire | 3c | 9,377$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.48 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed PortlandFire | 11c | 8,372$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.5 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed PortlandFire | 11c | 3,085$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.16 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…e791backed PortlandFire | 11c | 2,868$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.48 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 6c | 2,527$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked PortlandFire | 9c | 2,420$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked PortlandFire | 11c | 2,366$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.35 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…6fb9backed PortlandFire | 2c | 2,357$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…44b1backed PortlandFire | 7c | 1,616$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked PortlandFire | 8c | 1,138$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked PortlandFire | 18c | 1,113$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked PortlandFire | 7c | 1,112$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…9f95backed PortlandFire | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…599abacked PortlandFire | 12c | 868.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked PortlandFire | 10c | 763.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…de2fbacked PortlandFire | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked PortlandFire | 9c | 544.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed PortlandFire | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed PortlandFire | 7c | 420.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 166 | 33.1%55 W · 111 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed PortlandFire | 10c | 318.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked PortlandFire | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked PortlandFire | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked PortlandFire | 4c | 279$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed PortlandFire | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked PortlandFire | 6c | 257.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed PortlandFire | 12c | 255.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed PortlandFire | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked PortlandFire | 12c | 237.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked PortlandFire | 9c | 215$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…4d81backed PortlandFire | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed PortlandFire | 13c | 155.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed PortlandFire | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked PortlandFire | 9c | 117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…4e7cbacked PortlandFire | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked PortlandFire | 11c | 94.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…f2ffbacked PortlandFire | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…7475backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b6…072dbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…7bb6backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d3…5a6bbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2c…c92bbacked Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc1…e2a8backed PortlandFire | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynxthis page
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.