Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5eec70fce8175fc82e25d8fbd3906f78dbdc989429d8ced6189705dbf4e180
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 46c | 349.98$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 55c | 256.09$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 55c | 237.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 44c | 231.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 34c | 212.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 56c | 157.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes | 36c | 152.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 150.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 52c | 146$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 55c | 144.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 131.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 118.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 107.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 27c | 99.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 54c | 85.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…c512backed No | 56c | 85.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 22c | 84.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5d…9cc9backed Yes | 44c | 70.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 67.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 65.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 44c | 63.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 57.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 55c | 57.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 55.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 52.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…e1b6backed Yes | 46c | 49.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 43c | 48.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 45c | 47.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf084…89d8backed Yes | 45c | 46.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb00…1942backed Yes | 47c | 40.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 46c | 38.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 37c | 38.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 59c | 32.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 29.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 59c | 28.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 28.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 65c | 27.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked No | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 60c | 23.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 21.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.