Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dc749d6660d53d01db0094eda5575a1e697be57833f1b9ebffb832b4f0de831
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cc5…d713backed Yes | 4c | 351.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 349.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 59c | 287.09$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.44 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 199.55$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 42c | 171.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 161.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 148.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 45c | 139.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 124.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 107.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 100.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 99.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 81.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 44c | 68.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 68.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 58.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 72c | 58.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 77c | 51.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 48c | 50.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 48.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 32c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 46.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 40c | 45.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 55c | 45.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 40.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 64c | 40.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…7521backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 76c | 37.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 37.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 44c | 34.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 30c | 33.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 29.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 58c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 40c | 25.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 46c | 22.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.