Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc530672e5d3695d97e4a0184b5844a73a510f7852b0e14a4e32e7ac1892bf501
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 44c | 940.54$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.32 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 600.05$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 51c | 304.19$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 203.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 46c | 185$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 145.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 80c | 119.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 54c | 114.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 29c | 111.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 45c | 110.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 29c | 107.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 56c | 105.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 41c | 104$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 59c | 95.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 94.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 78c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 64c | 91.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 81.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 80.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 72.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 62.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 38c | 59.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 57.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 65c | 53.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 56c | 52.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 50.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 39c | 45.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 55c | 45.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 40c | 44.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 43.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 42.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 47c | 41.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 70c | 41.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 51c | 38.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…e184backed No | 46c | 37.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 52c | 36.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes | 66c | 35.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 56c | 34.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 33.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 38c | 33.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 49c | 32.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed Yes | 50c | 32.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 45c | 31.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 50c | 29.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 26.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 38c | 26.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…c273backed Yes | 54c | 26.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…8cc6backed No | 44c | 24.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 69c | 24.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 20.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.