AI · resolved market
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3df055c68e1572a5084f19d65af33f8584fa823428c1e108833fb4b0d550a91b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 9c | 7,626$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 73c | 1,022$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.94 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 13c | 934.67$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 71c | 930.7$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 832$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6b…29fdbacked No | 78c | 386.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 354$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 77c | 270$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 257.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b7…8196backed Yes | 24c | 256.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 230.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 22c | 225.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 73c | 166$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 138.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…c789backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fc…e4c9backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…fef5backed No | 80c | 43.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbb…4f37backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9328…9d74backed No | 77c | 32.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 76c | 27.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6dbabacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac6…2501backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 76c | 17.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.