NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3df1ba6b0d5e7a28e4200548315e4f1e88fa95563f966bc6b71a89f9e1004626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bd7…373ebacked Over | 53c | 43,058$22,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,357.04 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 29,879$14,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,173.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 8,770$4,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,121.77 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 4,126$1,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.35 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Over | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.62 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 52c | 2,222$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.56 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 2,091$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.2 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 1,857$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.21 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 953$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.91 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed Over | 53c | 752.19$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.19 | 267 | 57.3%153 W · 114 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 56c | 520.7$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.11 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 47c | 499.93$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.97 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 48c | 479$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.92 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 48c | 359$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.32 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 47c | 300$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.09 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 45c | 231.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Over | 53c | 165.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 84.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 47c | 74.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Over | 53c | 66.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Under | 48c | 47.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 48c | 44.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…12ffbacked Over | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked Over | 54c | 37.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Over | 54c | 36.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…bd2abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 48c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Under | 45c | 30.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 28.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
- Bobby Portis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Pelicans vs. BucksBucks won
- Pelicans vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.