NFL · resolved market
Saints vs. Bears: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3df7e0d9766d2f0c62acd43d2f060bef0089c8aa820d433d68fdcf32d3b37691
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Under | 53c | 3,900$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.84 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 56c | 3,570$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.75 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 2,959$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.9 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 44c | 2,672$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.88 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 46c | 1,677$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.62 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 62c | 1,105$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.88 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 47c | 740.43$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.43 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 53c | 740.43$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.43 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 34c | 591.28$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Under | 59c | 408.47$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.47 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 43c | 389.72$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.77 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 338.11$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.63 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 45c | 253.33$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 41c | 230.68$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 44c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 47.5this page
- Saints vs. BearsBears won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-5.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-6.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.