NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x647b6c031f244e29081a6d2352c0e09f7c96409a7aa3a799503d7fda99ed4825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Saints | 52c | 36,687$19,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,077 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Bears | 48c | 36,687$17,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,077 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Bears | 46c | 25,000$11,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,450 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Saints | 54c | 24,312$13,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,072.81 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bears | 46c | 1,757$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.6 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…530bbacked Saints | 56c | 1,248$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bears | 46c | 1,235$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.71 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Saints | 54c | 1,069$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.18 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Saints | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bears | 50c | 1,042$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.92 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Saints | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.39 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Bears | 45c | 777.78$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.78 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…b939backed Bears | 44c | 713.24$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bears | 44c | 621.55$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.07 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Saints | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Saints | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa161…5889backed Saints | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Saints | 56c | 525$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 44c | 456.01$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.37 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Bears | 44c | 455.85$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.7 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Saints | 53c | 425.53$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Bears | 46c | 370.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Saints | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Saints | 53c | 299.98$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saints | 55c | 288.66$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.76 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Saints | 54c | 241.48$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.23 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Bears | 47c | 234.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Bears | 47c | 213$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Saints | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Saints | 55c | 185$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bears | 57c | 149.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Bears | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Saints | 55c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Saints | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Saints | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bears | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bears | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…d9d5backed Saints | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Saints | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Saints | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa304…9311backed Saints | 54c | 26.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Saints | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-5.5)this page
- Saints vs. BearsBears won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-6.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.