NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac9fb46ea1be09d6a9f5ea56015e101cad0f8c51ff2b3e794588e8fb9009aeb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bears | 53c | 31,083$16,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,675.83 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Saints | 47c | 9,000$4,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saints | 47c | 6,887$3,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,236.87 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Saints | 48c | 4,807$2,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,307.28 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Saints | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Saints | 47c | 3,915$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.98 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bears | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Saints | 45c | 2,720$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.48 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Saints | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Saints | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Bears | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Saints | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.83 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Saints | 47c | 1,102$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.73 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Bears | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Saints | 48c | 840.88$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.21 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bears | 51c | 717.08$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.37 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears | 51c | 628.52$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.97 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Saints | 49c | 415$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Bears | 52c | 305.6$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Saints | 47c | 281.18$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.15 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Bears | 52c | 257.24$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Saints | 46c | 237.21$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Bears | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Saints | 50c | 221$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14e…f856backed Bears | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Bears | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Saints | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked Bears | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Bears | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…73a4backed Bears | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Bears | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Bears | 53c | 37.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Saints | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…7b68backed Bears | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Bears | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4f…52febacked Saints | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)this page
- Saints vs. BearsBears won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-5.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-6.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.