NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17f89e6c07c74232a96f268a1aa38ce69997ceaf9218c101e09f07dd6966c78e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $213,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears | 47c | 197,728$93,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104,602.02 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Saints | 53c | 69,583$36,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,879.2 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Saints | 53c | 46,913$24,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,657.33 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Saints | 53c | 42,125$22,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,326 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Saints | 53c | 31,839$16,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,795.55 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Saints | 53c | 11,091$5,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,878.2 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saints | 53c | 4,676$2,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.49 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Bears | 47c | 4,439$2,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,352.67 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bears | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Saints | 53c | 2,278$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.73 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Bears | 47c | 1,383$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.7 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Bears | 50c | 1,250$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bears | 47c | 1,136$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.08 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Saints | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bears | 50c | 851$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.5 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…2c5abacked Saints | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Saints | 52c | 480.81$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.02 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Saints | 53c | 380$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.4 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Bears | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Saints | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Saints | 50c | 277$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Bears | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Saints | 53c | 214$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Bears | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Bears | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Bears | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Saints | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Saints | 53c | 79.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Saints | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Bears | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…39d8backed Saints | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bears | 46c | 69.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bears | 47c | 69.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Saints | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Saints | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Bears | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Bears | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Bears | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…19b3backed Bears | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Bears | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Saints | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Saints | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bears | 46c | 36.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…d750backed Bears | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…c0edbacked Saints | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bears | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)this page
- Saints vs. BearsBears won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-5.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-6.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.