NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x153e34634b34959a5653c5a389c8142bc065a081e176368eb9af7b4a629a25f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Bears | 41c | 3,300$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Saints | 59c | 1,950$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.49 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Saints | 59c | 1,468$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.28 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Saints | 57c | 1,163$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.91 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Bears | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.91 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bears | 46c | 673$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.42 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bears | 43c | 580.36$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.76 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bears | 40c | 363.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.11 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Saints | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 40c | 315$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…c2eabacked Saints | 60c | 291.67$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…508abacked Bears | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Saints | 52c | 196$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Bears | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf998…7b41backed Saints | 61c | 39.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…a309backed Saints | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-6.5)this page
- Saints vs. BearsBears won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Under won
- Saints vs. Bears: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-5.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.