Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. Ultra Prime
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dfe1d65f0190fb0d317c345403c960c6dacbf03685c07f676535a9be1dad959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NIPof NIP, Ultra Prime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Ultra Prime | 16c | 23,714$3,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849.45 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked NIP | 72c | 13,698$9,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,775.07 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Ultra Prime | 20c | 12,350$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Ultra Prime | 50c | 9,082$4,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,521.95 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed NIP | 47c | 6,750$3,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,608.16 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…6130backed NIP | 55c | 6,308$3,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.81 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed NIP | 79c | 6,000$4,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed NIP | 78c | 2,500$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed NIP | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Ultra Prime | 28c | 2,406$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.63 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -13.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Ultra Prime | 13c | 2,193$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.96 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…337dbacked Ultra Prime | 19c | 2,020$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed NIP | 66c | 1,850$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.34 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f5…32aebacked Ultra Prime | 69c | 1,453$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked NIP | 78c | 1,082$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.57 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…16aebacked NIP | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked NIP | 78c | 937.35$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.22 | 91 | 27.5%25 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked Ultra Prime | 20c | 872.16$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.43 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ultra Prime | 2c | 762.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed NIP | 41c | 745.76$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -18.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Ultra Prime | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed NIP | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed NIP | 78c | 440$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed NIP | 80c | 361.23$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked NIP | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Ultra Prime | 20c | 322$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Ultra Prime | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed NIP | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed NIP | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 153 | 70.6%108 W · 45 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Ultra Prime | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked NIP | 80c | 247.16$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked NIP | 76c | 236.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked NIP | 50c | 231.97$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 194 | 51%99 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Ultra Prime | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Ultra Prime | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Ultra Prime | 23c | 150.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed NIP | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Ultra Prime | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Ultra Prime | 18c | 99.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 318 | 29.2%93 W · 225 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed NIP | 65c | 93.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Ultra Prime | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 866 | 49.7%430 W · 436 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Ultra Prime | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed NIP | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…62cfbacked Ultra Prime | 48c | 41.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Ultra Prime | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 364 | 65.1%237 W · 127 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3f…850bbacked NIP | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed NIP | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Ultra Prime | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 174 | 66.7%116 W · 58 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…cecbbacked NIP | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed NIP | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 194 | 52.1%101 W · 93 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x680e…10d0backed Ultra Prime | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.