MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e561d03cc1b62e4ee53895e7c14089527314bee38bd750a97244cb71daaa46a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 45c | 12,376$5,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,831.78 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 6,023$3,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,312.85 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 57c | 1,912$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.15 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 56c | 1,181$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.44 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 1,093$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 32c | 860.41$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.71 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 712.01$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…e372backed Over | 70c | 699.57$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 55c | 566.22$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.42 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 560$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 45c | 407.57$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.16 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 55c | 363.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.83 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 45c | 341.67$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.92 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 341.25$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 75c | 331.34$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 58c | 264.39$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.61 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 42c | 258$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 199.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 56c | 121.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 41c | 104.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 32c | 102$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 55c | 100.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 42c | 86.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 48c | 79.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Under | 57c | 69.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 54c | 69.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 56c | 68.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 63.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 34c | 59.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 56c | 57.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 56c | 55.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 47c | 55.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 53.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Under | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 51.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 56c | 50.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 60c | 50.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 43.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 42c | 43.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 39c | 38.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Under | 56c | 37.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 43c | 37.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 56c | 35.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 48c | 34.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 33.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 27.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…02d6backed Over | 73c | 25.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under | 56c | 21.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Under | 57c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston AstrosSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.