MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe58853fd83a0f8aa661f90d51cf8b006121da510e1e3330dcabbae06a60a368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 1,302$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.63 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d98…4d2dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 759.65$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.86 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 36c | 739.53$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 362.63$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 239.12$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 161.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Houston Astros | 38c | 142.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Houston Astros | 38c | 142.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Houston Astros | 40c | 131.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 131.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Houston Astros | 35c | 130.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 120.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Houston Astros | 40c | 117.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 76.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 76.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Houston Astros | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Houston Astros | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 58.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Houston Astros | 40c | 53.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Houston Astros | 32c | 46.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 39.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Houston Astros | 37c | 35.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 33.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Houston Astros | 43c | 24.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston AstrosSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.