MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd25a7ae40df7d59dbfe2691bb3655e2b0d01d728aaaf6bf59b23838d7f853149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Under | 46c | 6,204$2,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,878.34 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 3,220$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.69 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 55c | 1,103$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.52 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 705.51$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.59 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 19c | 613.79$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 53c | 407.43$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.49 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 56c | 341.42$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.07 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…fdb6backed Under | 46c | 323.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.03 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 55cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 54c | 291.08$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.09 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 62c | 284.06$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 47c | 216.4$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 54c | 152.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 41c | 149.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 64c | 97.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 45c | 82.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 54c | 63.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 65c | 61.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Over | 55c | 59.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Over | 55c | 57.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Over | 55c | 54.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 39c | 53.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 55c | 48.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 47c | 48.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 35c | 45.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 56c | 43.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Under | 35c | 42.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 70c | 41.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 55c | 36.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…6364backed Over | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 47c | 33.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 64c | 31.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d0…a2a2backed Under | 46c | 31.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 54c | 31.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 54c | 30.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 79c | 29.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…36c6backed Over | 54c | 29.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…01a8backed Under | 38c | 27.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston AstrosSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.