Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e5d1cb9ceed5889fe2da6e33159fe7003fddabfc3056c354b4e40bbf4f630c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 3c | 900.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 14c | 268$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 263.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 43c | 244.49$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.49 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 198.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 75c | 195.34$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 181.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 161.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 108.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 33c | 99.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 22c | 90.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 43c | 73.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 68.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed No | 44c | 66.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 44c | 66.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 25c | 65.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 47c | 62.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 51c | 60.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 60.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 46c | 60.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 44c | 56.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 23c | 56.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 24c | 52.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…2a53backed No | 70c | 35.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 32.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 76c | 32.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked No | 43c | 29.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 71c | 28.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked No | 50c | 26.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 44c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 58c | 18.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.